Now that they have made the official announcements for the 2013 Academy Award nominations, let's see how I did in my predictions.
86th Academy Awards
BEST PICTURE 7/9
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
The Wolf of Wall Street
3 things:
1) What gives with the 9 nominations? I don't think I read a single prediction that claimed there would be less than 10 nominees. Not sure what the criteria is but there must be some quota of votes that must be met after which a film is eligible for the nom.
2) I was very surprised by the support for Nebraska. An earlier iteration of my list included Philomena, though I've heard so little about the film besides Dench that I hesitated and took it out.
3) I had assumed the unstoppable Weistein machine would force a nomination for The Butler but thankfully, for the sake of posterity, I was wrong. I can still see all the nominees without having to watch Lee Daniels' The Butler, which I consider a win.
1) What gives with the 9 nominations? I don't think I read a single prediction that claimed there would be less than 10 nominees. Not sure what the criteria is but there must be some quota of votes that must be met after which a film is eligible for the nom.
2) I was very surprised by the support for Nebraska. An earlier iteration of my list included Philomena, though I've heard so little about the film besides Dench that I hesitated and took it out.
3) I had assumed the unstoppable Weistein machine would force a nomination for The Butler but thankfully, for the sake of posterity, I was wrong. I can still see all the nominees without having to watch Lee Daniels' The Butler, which I consider a win.
BEST DIRECTOR 4/5
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
I figured Greengrass was the wildcard of my picks but also assumed if the Academy varied from the DGA, it would pick Llewyn Davis next. As mentioned above, Nebraska's support was surprising to me, though Payne also got a Globe nod so its not completely out of left field.
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
The old guard gets overtaken by the new guard. I'm glad DiCaprio's best performance gets recognition: I was fearful the liberal frustration with Wolf would lead to him and Hill being overlooked. Even with DiCaprio's Globe win, I saw a scenario similar to Jim Carrey's back-to-back Globe wins in the late 90's that resulted in 0 Oscar nominations for Carrey.
Also, new rule: never underestimate the love for actors in a David O. Russell film. The Hustle begins.
Also, new rule: never underestimate the love for actors in a David O. Russell film. The Hustle begins.
BEST ACTRESS 4/5
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Same comment as for Bale above. It's her first nomination in the leading category so I suppose I should've seen it coming. I also think she is immediately at the head of the race with Blanchett for the win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 3.5/5
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
No sympathy votes for Gandolfini, which I thought was a possibility but could not fathom considering that his performance in Enough Said would have garnered some attention regardless (he also had the SAG nom). Still, posthumous nominations are tricky and not as easy to predict as I thought. I knew American Hustle would get a nod here, but I picked Renner due simply to the fact that he was not mentioned as a favorite and the Academy sometimes throws those curveballs in supporting categories (curveball being supporting performances not nominated for Globe or SAG, such as Marcia Gay Harden in 2000 or Robert Forster in 1997). Cooper continues the Hustle.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 3/5
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
The best shot for The Butler still failed to garner a nom. I picked Octavia Spencer with the same mindset as Renner above.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 4/5
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
This one was kind of a shock. I have heard nothing but good things about Llewyn Davis and assumed if the Coens got ANY nomination, surely it would be for writing. Again we see the dismissal of the Coens for the embracing of Payne.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 5/5
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Finally I nail a whole category!
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 4/5
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
I didn't know the Academy watched foreign language films.
BEST EDITING 3/5
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Wow. I try not to take any of these awards too seriously or judge them immediately on the merits of the films themselves because it is all industry back-patting anyway, but to award Hustle's editors over Wolf's Thelma Schoonmaker is a slap in the face to cinema and good taste, especially since Hustle might have been at least 2 times better (and 10% shorter) had Schoonmaker been cutting it. Dallas Buyers Club support out of nowhere.
BEST
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Her
So close. Her was the tricky one considering contemporary-ish movies rarely get recognized here but I had forgotten about Gravity after removing it from this list at some point. Oh well. I did think Smaug's amazing gold hoard might garner a mention here, but the Academy doesn't love The Hobbit the way they did LOTR. Also, not sure when they changed the category name to officially be "Best Production Design" but I am now with the program.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN 4/5
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Mr. Banks was the prediction I felt the least sure about here. I forgot the Academy sometimes decides to recognize movies like The Grandmaster, foreign language films by respected international directors that inexplicably are not eligible in the BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM category, yet pick up a handful of technical noms as an average contender. Nice to see.
BEST SCORE 3/5
The Book Thief
Gravity
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave didn't do poorly overall but it wasn't a shoo-in in as many technical categories as I assumed. Her is a definite surprise, though Arcade Fire is a currently beloved band and the score for Her was very fitting. Desplat is respected so I figured Philomena was in the running but I added All is Lost after it won the Globe for Best Score, figuring that should mean there was enough support for the film to garner a mention. Nevermind.
BEST SOUND EDITING 3/5
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
I'm sorry, I didn't realize Lone Survivor was even a 2013 release. I should have known that if they didn't swoon for Smaug's lair, at least they should swoon for Smaug's voice. My mistake. I also figured that Pacific Rim would have been a force to be reckoned with in this category.
BEST SOUND MIXING 3/5
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Common pattern here. I am surprised with the overlooking of Slave here, as the sound mixing in that film is so richly textured and integral to the immersive experience of the film.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 3.5/5
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Lone Ranger
It's about time this category filled out to 5 nominees, but it fluctuates from year to year. I picked four. Whatever. Surprised with the tech love of Lone Ranger though and the complete dismissal of Pacific Rim.
BEST MAKEUP 1/3
Dallas Buyers Club
I should have heeded the Makeup/Hair Guild awards who were obviously impressed by Lone Ranger. I commend anyone who predicted a nod to Bad Grandpa. Even though the movie makes a big deal about its hair and makeup, there is surprisingly no Hustle to be found here. Weird.
OVERALL SCORE 62/82 -- 75.6%
MOST NOMINATIONS:
12 Years a Slave -- 12 nominations 9
Gravity -- 9 nominations 10
American Hustle -- 8 nominations 10
Captain Phillips -- 8 nominations 6
BIGGEST SURPRISE:
Dallas Buyers Club nominated for Best Editing.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT:
No Thelma Schoonmaker nomination for editing The Wolf of Wall Street.
BIGGEST DELIGHT:
BIGGEST SURPRISE:
Dallas Buyers Club nominated for Best Editing.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT:
No Thelma Schoonmaker nomination for editing The Wolf of Wall Street.
BIGGEST DELIGHT:
Jonah Hill getting a nod for The Wolf of Wall Street.
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